How we got here

1. Company NOI dipped below trailing-12. Drilling into revenue centers narrowed the pressure to Production & Wholesale, where COGS / BBL ran above its baseline while volume and price held.
2. Brand-level COGS. Six brands sorted by total COGS / BBL. Hazy IPA sat at the top with both the highest cost level and the steepest lift vs. T12 (+41%).
3. Ingredient × Yield. Decomposing material into ingredient (cost in the BBL out the door) and beer loss (yield- driven shrink). Hazy IPA's beer loss held flat — the lift was almost entirely on the ingredient side, not yield slippage. The story is sourcing or recipe.
4. Recipe drill. Hazy IPA is a hop-forward specialty IPA. Citra hops alone explained essentially the full move (+30% vs. T12, ~$1.5K/month margin pressure). Root cause is procurement-side, not market narrative: the Citra forward contract expired in Dec 2025, and spot pricing has ridden the Yakima Valley shortage up every month since.

The decision

Cost-side action — lower the input cost. Lock 12-mo Citra at slight discount to current spot. Recovers most of the spike + hedges further inflation.

The follow-up plan